The race for the Democratic presidential nomination has been in flux since the last presidential debate in September.
But the latest batch of poll data from the National Election Pool and the NBC News/Wall Street Journal tracking poll, which was released Thursday, offer some insight into how the race might look if the race had stayed as tight as it has.
The numbers also suggest that Clinton’s lead in the national polls has narrowed significantly since the second debate.
Clinton’s numbers are up 12 points since the first debate and the margin of error in those polls is plus or minus four percentage points.
The Post’s Aaron Blake has more on how the new data could affect the race.
Trump’s numbers also remain elevated.
The new numbers suggest that his campaign’s numbers have stabilized or slightly improved from the first few weeks.
But they also show that Trump’s support has been growing since the third debate.
His support has grown by 12 points among likely voters, but the margin is still plus or less than four percentage point, and it is at its lowest point since the poll was first conducted.
Trump, the GOP nominee, has a lead of more than 6 points among those who say they would vote for him.
Trump continues to dominate among voters who say he would win the general election, which is down from 6 points in the NBC/WSJ poll.
The candidates’ support in the first and second debates remains solid, but Clinton’s support in both polls has been falling.
Trump has seen a decline in his support among voters under 35 years old, which has dropped from 8 points to 5 points.
Clinton has seen an increase in her support among younger voters, who have dropped from 4 points to 6 points.
Those numbers suggest she is still in a position to win the election.
But it’s possible that a change in the race could have a ripple effect in the campaign, especially among the young and independent voters.
Trump is still running strongly among younger white voters, and that support has fallen from 11 points to just 7 points.
That is significant given the high profile of Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, and his ties to white nationalist groups, like the Traditionalist Worker Party and the Traditional Values Coalition.
Among the young, college-educated voters who are now the leading force behind Trump, Clinton has a strong lead among those groups, and her support has gone up.
Trump still leads Clinton among college-aged white voters by just 2 points, and among young white voters overall, she has a slight edge, according to the poll.
But among college students, her support is down, from 10 points to 9 points.
This trend is consistent with previous data, as the poll shows that Trump has a slightly higher percentage of college-age voters in the poll who say that they would be voting for him, compared with Clinton.
Among this group, Trump has an 11-point advantage over Clinton, while Clinton is ahead by 4 points among young voters overall.
The NBC/Wall St. Journal poll also shows a slight shift in the Democratic race, where Clinton leads among independents, but that gap has narrowed somewhat from last week.
Independents are still Trump’s strongest group of supporters, but they have been falling since the debate.
By comparison, the NBC poll shows Clinton leading by about 3 points among voters age 45 to 54.
The poll shows an increase of about 2 points among people who are 65 and older, and Trump’s lead has narrowed slightly.
Trump also has a narrower lead among voters younger than 35 years, but his support has increased slightly, from 16 points to 17 points.
Among voters under 30 years old and under 30 overall, Trump leads Clinton by about 2 percentage points, while her lead has fallen slightly to 9 percentage points among this group.
Among these voters, the survey shows a 6-point difference in support between the two candidates.
The survey also shows that Clinton has improved her favorability ratings among younger and minority voters, as well as with whites.
Clinton continues to lead among white voters over 65, and she has an 8-point lead among older white voters.
She has also gained her support from voters with college degrees, but Trump is in a strong position to take the white vote, the poll suggests.
Trump leads among voters without a college degree, by 3 points.
But his support is significantly less than the support of Clinton among these voters overall; Clinton has led Trump among this demographic by 8 points.
Trump and Clinton are locked in a dead heat among independents and those who are under 30.
In both polls, Clinton leads by about 6 points, with Trump just behind her by 3.
In all of these polls, the Democratic candidates are well ahead of the Republican candidates in the demographic breakdown.
And while the Republican race has been tight in the past two weeks, Trump’s performance among white working-class voters, whose support has declined over the past few months, remains strong.
The CNN/ORC poll also finds that Trump continues the dominant lead among men in the polls